Every active market on Previa receives a confidence score — a number from 0 to 100 that represents the AI’s assessment of the market’s current state based on multiple data signals.
Reading a confidence score
The score appears as a colored ring on market cards and detail pages:
| Score range | Color | Interpretation |
|---|
| 70 – 100 | Green | Strong signal — multiple data sources agree on direction |
| 40 – 69 | Yellow | Mixed signal — some supporting evidence but conflicting indicators |
| 0 – 39 | Red | Weak or uncertain — limited data or signals point in different directions |
A high score does not mean “buy YES” and a low score does not mean “buy NO.” The score reflects the strength and consistency of available signals, not a directional trade recommendation.
What the score is built from
The confidence score combines five weighted components:
| Component | Weight | Source |
|---|
| Market price signal | 40% | Current price, price momentum, and recent trajectory |
| News signal | 25% | AI-analyzed news articles matched to the market by semantic similarity |
| Social sentiment | 15% | Aggregated sentiment from X (Twitter), Reddit, and Telegram |
| Historical patterns | 15% | How similar markets have behaved and resolved historically |
| Time decay | 5% | Proximity to market resolution date |
Score breakdowns (Pro / Premium)
On the Pro and Premium plans, you can see the individual breakdown of each component on the market detail page. This shows exactly how much each signal contributed to the final score.
Free users see only the composite number. Upgrading unlocks:
- Per-component scores and their contribution percentages
- AI-generated reasoning explaining why the score is what it is
- Key news sources and sentiment data that influenced the score
Score updates
Scores are recalculated every 10 minutes. When a score changes significantly (more than 10 points), Previa generates a score alert that you can subscribe to via the alerts system.
Score alerts
If a market’s score shifts dramatically, Previa flags it. This can indicate:
- Breaking news affecting the outcome
- A sudden change in social sentiment
- A sharp price move driven by informed trading
You can set up score shift alerts to be notified when this happens on markets you’re watching. 
